As open hostilities once again affect millions in the Middle East, 42 Indonesian citizens have found themselves stranded in Tel Aviv after Israel closed its main international airport. The closure came on  June 13, following the dramatic military escalation between Israel and Iran - triggered by a series of attacks and retaliations involving nuclear sites, drone strikes, and missile barrages.

As a result, the Indonesian group, who were on a religious pilgrimage, cannot return home due to the suspension of flights out of Ben Gurion Airport. This latest development comes as Iran and Indonesia mark 75 years of diplomatic relations and the 46th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution. Throughout the decades of cooperation, rooted in shared cultural values, non-alignment, and mutual support for the Palestinian cause, the two countries have maintained stable ties, even amid external pressures and international sanctions.

BBC Indonesia reports that Judha Nugraha, Director for the Protection of Indonesian Citizens and Legal Entities at Indonesia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that the Indonesian Embassy in Jordan is facilitating their evacuation overland, given the airport closure.

The ministry also confirmed that 187 Indonesians are currently living or working in various parts of Israel, primarily in the southern region of Arava.

Citizens have been urged to postpone non-essential travel, especially to Israel and Palestine, which the Indonesian Embassy in Amman has categorised under Alert Level 1 - the country’s highest level - since 2023.

Indonesians in Iran told to stay vigilant

There are also at least 386 Indonesian nationals currently living in Iran across 11 cities. Most are students based in Qom, while the remainder, including migrant workers and embassy staff, reside in Tehran. The embassy in Tehran raised its alert to Level 2 in April because of the rising regional instability.

In a statement quoted by BBC News Indonesia, the Indonesian Student Association (IPI) in Iran urged fellow citizens to maintain communication with the embassy and remain composed.

They also expressed condolences for the Iranian civilians and leaders who died in recent Israeli attacks, while criticising both Israel’s aggression and the perceived silence of the United Nations.

Judha Nugraha reassured the public that no Indonesians had been harmed, noting that Israel’s military targets have so far been confined to strategic sites.

He added that life in Tehran continues as usual, with no reports of panic buying, although queues for fuel have grown.

Conflict intensifies with strikes and counterstrikes

When, on June 13, Israel launched a large-scale operation dubbed Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iranian nuclear sites, military assets, and populated areas, Jerusalem justified the strike on grounds of national security, accusing Tehran of pursuing nuclear armament.

Later that evening, Iran retaliated with a barrage of drones and ballistic missiles.

Although the tit-for-tat attacks continue, no formal evacuation has been requested by Indonesian nationals. Nonetheless, the Foreign Ministry has prepared contingency measures should the situation escalate.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Rolliansyah Soemirat, who also serves as Indonesia’s ambassador to Iran and Turkmenistan, confirmed that while evacuation plans exist, no citizens have yet chosen to activate them, according to the BBC.

He emphasised that evacuation is a personal decision, adding that many Indonesians have opted to remain in place during previous crises.

Potential escalation

Experts warn that the likelihood of broader conflict is increasing. International relations analyst Idil Syawfi from Parahyangan Catholic University pointed to Israel’s strikes on oil depots and Iran’s Foreign Ministry offices as signs of deliberate escalation.

He interpreted Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to the Iranian people as an indication that regime change may be Israel’s ultimate aim although officials in Israel have since denied this.

Idil argued that Iran now faces a strategic dilemma: retaliate weakly and risk losing credibility, or respond forcefully and give Israel and the United States grounds for deeper military involvement.

Middle East expert Tia Mariatul Kibtiah from Binus University echoed these concerns but noted that regional players such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE -home to US military bases - are likely to push for diplomatic de-escalation rather than to back Iran.

She also suggested that Israel’s strike may have been intended to distract from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s domestic political woes and be a bid to derail US-Iran nuclear negotiations.

Indonesia’s economic vulnerability

Kompas also reports that tensions have already impacted economic indicators, with the rupiah exceeding IDR16,000 per US dollar and global oil prices on the rise.

Professor Hikmahanto Juwana of the University of Indonesia warned that Iran could respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipments. Such a move would likely send global energy prices soaring and severely impact Indonesia, which relies heavily on imported oil. Meanwhile, senior economist Didik J. Rachbini, speaking in the same Kompas forum, urged policymakers to strengthen domestic purchasing power to mitigate inflation and trade disruptions. He added that international trade would suffer if the conflict continues, affecting business confidence and job creation.

Jakarta’s diplomatic position and strategy

Indonesia has taken a firm stance in the eyes of many to date by condemning Israel’s recent attacks as violations of international law and urging restraint from all sides. While analysts note the country’s influence in global diplomacy is limited, they emphasise its neutral position can still contribute to peace efforts. How this will be viewed across the Muslim world remains to be seen.

Suggestions have been made for high-level engagement with global powers and key Islamic nations to push for a ceasefire and humanitarian aid. Domestically, officials have underlined the importance of safeguarding citizens and maintaining Indonesia’s independent foreign policy. 

Whether through diplomacy or domestic preparedness, Indonesia faces a complex challenge: protecting its citizens abroad while bracing for the economic ripple effects of a conflict it cannot control.

State-owned energy company Pertamina has already announced contingency plans, including the rerouting of logistics shipping routes, should the Middle East situation deteriorate further. 

As tensions persist, experts urge the government to strengthen its regional economic ties and remain vigilant to any potential escalation. Balancing diplomatic efforts with economic preparedness will be essential as Indonesia navigates the fallout from a conflict that, though distant, carries real domestic consequences.